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Aviation industry market intelligence firm Argus has released predictions for the U.S. business aviation market in 2021, and analysts like what they see.
It’s been a rough year for biz av, which clocked a sobering 71 per cent year-over-year activity decline in April 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic exploded last March, all sectors of aviation tried to roll with the punches, as travel dried up virtually overnight.
“The COVID-19 pandemic is still having a dramatic impact on the aviation industry,” said Joe Moeggenberg, CEO of Argus International. “Using real-time and historical TRAQPak flight tracking data, our aviation analysts took an objective, data-driven look into how this pandemic has altered business aviation traffic and provides a forecast for future activity.”
According to Argus’s Dec. 15 white paper “Business Aviation Rebound: 2021 Predictions,” a return to normal business aviation activity may still be months away, but there is definitely light on the horizon.
That hope comes in the form of various vaccines, one of which has already been approved in the U.S. and Canada. The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is currently being distributed in both North American countries, as well as several others around the world. Still, it could take a full year before everyone who wants the vaccine can get it, as health care workers and vulnerable populations are prioritized.
Once the world begins to gain control over COVID-19, Argus expects travel demand to improve relatively quickly. International bans will be lifted and companies will once again authorize employees to travel — two factors that will heavily influence the demand for business aviation services, according to the report.
January and February activity levels are expected to remain flat in the U.S., with declines of 12.3 per cent and 14.8 per cent, respectively, compared to 2020. But in March 2021, exactly one year from the outbreak of the pandemic, the business aviation sector south of the border is expected to make significant gains.
“Our current forecast model is predicting a 21.6 per cent yearly gain in flight activity for March 2021, with a total of 221,0000 flights expected during the month,” reads the Argus report, adding that this is the month when U.S. part 91 non-commercial operators — hit hard by the pandemic — are expected to see some improvement.
Although March is looking good, Argus is most excited about the month of April — assuming a successful vaccination campaign. That’s when U.S. business aviation as a whole is expected to record a massive yearly activity gain of 194 per cent. Individual market segments are expected to recover at different rates, with fractional activity leading in April with a year-over-year gain of 323 per cent. Part 91 operators are forecasted to enjoy a 189 per cent increase that month, while part 135 commercial non-scheduled activity should see a gain of 173 per cent.
Although this sunny forecast depends on a successful vaccine roll-out, Argus is bullish on the future of business aviation.
“You can rest assured that business aviation will be relied upon to deliver managers to meetings, families to previously cancelled gatherings, and it will continue to transport critical supplies, medicine and patients like it has always done,” concludes the report.
Sadly, viruses are NOT “data driven.”