Estimated reading time 2 minutes, 46 seconds.
A new report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) includes estimates of the impact that the massive decline in aviation has had on fuel consumption.
“Jet fuel was the oil product with the largest decline in demand relative to 2019,” says the IEA in its Global Energy Review 2020.
It says that average daily deliveries of jet fuel and kerosene combined fell in January by four per cent or by 310,000 barrels (49,285 cubic metres or 13,019,984 U.S. gallons). February’s daily average fell 14 per cent to 1,100 bbl (175,000 m3 or 46,200 gal).
In March, “after travel bans were implemented widely and a large proportion of the world’s aircraft fleet was grounded from around the middle of the month,” daily average deliveries for the month overall were “likely” to have plunged by 27 per cent or 2,100 bbl (33.9 m3 or 88,200 gal).
It estimates that first quarter 2020 jet kerosene demand was down 1.2 million barrels from the same period in 2019, the equivalent of 190,785 cubic metres or 50.4 million gallons.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2020, the IEA notes that the Montreal-based International Air Transport Association expects flight capacity use in the second quarter to average 65 per cent below year-earlier levels, followed by drops of 40 and 10 per cent, respectively, in the third and fourth quarters.
“Data show that global flight numbers were down 70 per cent at the start of April from a year earlier,” the IEA added. “Looking ahead to the rest of 2020, we expect demand for jet fuel and kerosene to decrease 20 per cent in the second half of the year relative to 2019.”
For 2020 as a whole, it projects daily average demand to be down 26 per cent from 2019, to 2.1 million barrels (333,873 cubic metres or 88.2 million gallons).
The IEA says that the “stunning declines” in energy demand by all sectors in the first quarter of 2020 has resulted in “a major drop” in global carbon dioxide emissions from year-earlier volumes. “Not only are annual emissions in 2020 set to decline at an unprecedented rate, the decline is set to be almost twice as large as all previous declines since the end of World War II combined.”
