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Boeing has raised its forecast for new airplane demand, projecting the need for 41,030 new airplanes over the next 20 years valued at US$6.1 trillion dollars.
The company’s annual current market outlook (CMO) was released June 20 at the Paris Air Show, with total airplane demand rising 3.6 per cent over last year’s forecast.
“Passenger traffic has been very strong so far this year, and we expect to see it grow 4.7 per cent each year over the next two decades,” said Randy Tinseth, vice-president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “The market is especially hungry for single-aisle airplanes as more people start traveling by air.”
The single-aisle segment will see the most growth over the forecast, fueled by low-cost carriers and emerging markets. 29,530 new airplanes will be needed in this segment, an increase of almost five per cent over last year.
The forecast for the widebody segment includes 9,130 airplanes, with a large wave of potential replacement demand beginning early in the next decade. With more airlines shifting to small and medium/large widebody airplanes like the 787 and 777X, the primary demand for very large airplanes going forward will be in the cargo market. Boeing projects the need for 920 new production widebody freighters over the forecast period.
The Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries over the next two decades. Worldwide, 57 per cent of the new deliveries will be for airline growth, while 43 per cent will be for replacement of older airplanes with new, more fuel efficient jets.
The full report can be found at www.boeing.com/cmo.
Aerospace Services Market
Boeing has also released a forecast for aerospace services demand, projecting the need for expansive services over the next 10 years, valued at US$2.6 trillion.
The company released its services market outlook on June 20 at the Paris Air Show. The outlook shows the tremendous potential for growth in the aerospace services markets Boeing serves, including:
- Maintenance, engineering and upgrades;
- Information services and analytics; and
- Training and professional services.
Trends in commercial and government aircraft and services show customers are relying on technology and data to drive smarter business decisions and improve the commercial passenger experience, as well as warfighter safety and effectiveness.
Advances in connectivity are also making it easier to predict and respond to the forces that impact the success of aircraft and those they serve.
“It is clear that our customers, in both commercial and government sectors, are searching for more efficient ways to keep their fleets operating and ready for use in an age of rapid technological advancement,” said Stan Deal, president and CEO of Boeing Global Services, Boeing’s new dedicated services business focused on the needs of global defense, space and commercial customers.
While North America and Europe will remain the largest commercial services markets, the fastest growth over the next 10 years will occur in Asia. Overall, Boeing expects the total commercial aviation support and services 20-year market to be worth almost US$8.5 trillion between 2017 and 2036.
“As commercial airline fleets continue to grow worldwide, demand for aftermarket services designed to increase efficiency and extend the economic lives of airplanes will follow,” said Deal.
In government services, growth of the United States market–currently the largest individual market–will remain flat. But international markets adding rotorcraft and commercial derivative aircraft, led by Middle East and Asia-Pacific customers, are expected to grow.
“Government aviation services are expected to significantly outpace overall fleet growth, driven in large part by sustainment and modernization requirements around the globe,” Deal said. “Using our distinct advantage of drawing upon expertise in both areas allows Boeing Global Services to provide the very best value to our customers while continuing to invest and grow in the services marketplace.”
Boeing’s services market outlook is a long-term forecast, serving to guide long-term business planning, as well as share Boeing’s view of industry trends.
