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Forecast International projects that 18,679 large commercial jet transports will be produced in the 10-year period from 2022 to 2031. The value of this production, in constant 2022 U.S. dollars, is estimated at $2.94 trillion.
Annual unit production is projected to increase from 1,156 large commercial jet transports in 2022 to 2,111 in 2029. Production is forecast to drop to 2,037 aircraft in 2030 due to an anticipated cyclical downturn. Production in 2031 is forecast to total 2,051 aircraft.
Our forecast indicates that Airbus and Boeing will account for 96.7 percent of total production in the large airliner market during the 10-year forecast period. Together, the two manufacturers are projected to build 18,066 large jetliners during the timeframe.
Airbus is forecast to build 9,774 large commercial airliners during the forecast period, while Boeing is forecast to build 8,292. Airbus is projected to lead the market in narrowbody production, while Boeing is forecast to lead the market in widebody production.
Demand for large commercial airliners picked up substantially in 2021. Combined, Airbus and Boeing recorded 1,666 gross orders for large commercial airliners in 2021, almost triple the 561 gross orders registered by the two companies in 2020. Order cancellations did continue at a high (though reduced) rate into 2021, suppressing net order totals.
“The large commercial airliner market remains essentially an Airbus/Boeing duopoly,” said Forecast International Senior Aerospace Analyst Raymond Jaworowski. “Nevertheless, the two giant manufacturers do face some challengers, particularly in the narrowbody segment. New narrowbodies entering the market include the COMAC C919 from China and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia.
“Boeing has made considerable progress in getting its 737 MAX program back on track. The company resumed customer deliveries of MAXs in December 2020.
Boeing is well-positioned in the widebody market, where its twin-engine 777 and 787 models have proven to be popular items. The 787 program did suffer a production hiccup in 2021, causing a temporary suspension of deliveries, but this should prove to be only a short-term obstacle. As for the 777, Boeing is currently managing a transition from the Classic versions to the new 777X series, a move that has become somewhat complicated in the midst of a difficult widebody market. Production of the four-engine 747-8 is scheduled to end in 2022.
Airbus has also been in the process of refashioning its product line. In the narrowbody segment, the re-engined A320neo variants have largely succeeded the original members of the A320 family in production. The A321LR and A321XLR versions of the A321neo are mounting at least a partial foray into the Boeing 757 replacement market. Acquisition of the CSeries from Bombardier has provided Airbus with a product, re-named the A220, positioned at the lower end of the narrowbody market.
In the widebody arena, Airbus is replacing the original A330 with the re-engined A330neo. The production ramp-up of the A350 was interrupted by the pandemic, but is slated to resume in 2023. A freighter version of the A350 is under development. Production of the 500+ passenger A380 ended in 2021.
Forecast International representatives will be available during the Farnborough Airshow (Hall 3, Booth 2521) to demonstrate the company’s extensive line of Aerospace & Defense Market Intelligence products, including Platinum Forecast System 4.4.
This press release was prepared and distributed by FI
