By Brent Bundy | October 16, 2023 Estimated reading time 6 minutes, 18 seconds.
Honeywell continued its annual tradition of unveiling the annual Global Business Aviation Outlook on the Sunday night before the week of NBAA-BACE 2023. Once again, worldwide press gathered at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas to hear the 10-year predictions for trends in business jet deliveries and operations.
Presenting the data was Honeywell manager of strategy and market research, Javier Jimenez Serrano. Similar to last year’s forecast, the 10-year period from 2024 to 2033 shows an expected 8,500 new aircraft delivered at an estimated value of $278 billion. Owner responses indicate a two per cent increase over the previous projection for the upcoming five-year purchase plans.
“The fastest growing classes continue to be what Honeywell categorized as very high speed, ultra-long range, with the entrance into service of the Gulfstream G400, G700, G800, Bombardier Global 8000, and Falcon 10X, and the large cabin class in the early 2030s,” Serrano pointed out.
That class is projected to account for 69 per cent of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years. He added, “But we also expect strong demand in the midsize and super-midsize class segments, since we have seen backlogs stay strong and demand never really go away.”
Additionally, the outlook shows new business jet deliveries for 2024 are expected to show a 10 per cent improvement over 2023, with expenses anticipated to increase by 13 per cent.
The effects of Covid-19 are still being seen but appear to be levelling out. Following a massive surge in flight activity during the pandemic, this year saw a decline of approximately four per cent compared to 2022. These patterns are expected to stabilize in 2024 with a return to steady growth in 2025, assuming corporate profits and inflation both return to normalized levels.
Sustainability continues to play a heavy role in current and future business jet travel. This marked the third year that Honeywell has dedicated a portion of the survey to carbon footprint offsetting. Nearly 60 per cent of respondents report implementing at least one method to meet this goal, a 10 per cent increase over last year. The leading approaches are fewer private jet trips (31 per cent) and slower cruising speeds (18 per cent).
Of the 67 per cent of surveyed operators who indicate plans to increase their environmental friendliness, 40 per cent said SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) would be their method of choice. A common theme is to be able to improve the mission without sacrificing performance.
Regional breakdown of new aircraft deliveries was as follows: North America makes up 64 per cent (equal to last year), Europe covers 14 per cent (one per cent drop), Latin America comes in at five per cent (two per cent decrease), Asia Pacific is 11 per cent (one per cent increase), and Middle East/Africa account for six per cent (two per cent higher). In addition, preowned jets account for 27 per cent of the five-year purchase plans (one per cent lower), following record demand over the past two years.
Following the outlook presentation, newly appointed Honeywell Aerospace president and CEO Jim Currier provided updates on a variety of programs including ongoing electrification of components, SwiftJet connectivity, engines and powerplants, and the 6th generation of the Anthem flight deck. This is Currier’s first NBAA-BACE in his new role and he advised that there will be additional details and announcements throughout the week.
The evening was capped off by a roundtable discussion emceed by Honeywell director of external communications, Adam Kress. The panel members were Supernal chief test pilot and former U.S. Marine aviatior, RJ Schreiner; former flight attendant and current medevac and charter pilot, Alyssa Silva; and Honeywell VP of integrated avionics, Andrew Barker. The three participants covered a variety of topics including pilot shortages, UAM integration into airspace, pilot training paths, and the latest aviation technology.
Honeywell will be making additional announcements during the show at Booth N4302.
