By Dayna Fedy-MacDonald | February 13, 2024 Estimated reading time 5 minutes, 18 seconds.
The aviation industry kicked off 2023 amid a number of uncertainties, with looming questions regarding fluctuating flight activities, potential economic downturns, and the impact of persistent supply chain challenges and personnel shortages.
ARGUS International has released its TRAQPak 2023 Business Aviation Review, which sheds light on the flight activity trends through the last year, as well as the bizav industry’s trajectory into 2024.
According to the review, Part 91 flying in North America saw a modest decline of 2.6 per cent in 2023. Fractional activity, on the other hand, experienced an impressive growth rate of 8.9 per cent throughout the year, despite concerns about a possible recession in the U.S. and supply chain disruptions. The surge in fractional activity, however, was contrasted with a decline of 8.6 per cent in Part 135 on-demand flying.
North American flight activity overall experienced a 3.3 per cent decline compared to 2022, with consistent decreases observed throughout much of the year.
Globally, there were 4,681,989 business aircraft departures in 2023, with the U.S. accounting for 66.7 per cent of those departures, followed by Canada at 4.8 per cent.
Noteworthy is the fact that the aviation industry has marked four years since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, and five years since the last “normal” year of activity. As the industry progresses through 2024, ARGUS believes it is beginning to see a sense of stabilization.
Compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the bizav sector in North America saw an 11.8 per cent increase in 2023. However, the TRAQPak review noted that if the industry had not experienced the disruptive effects of Covid-19, “and grew at 2 to 3 per cent annually, then 2023 was right about where we would have been regardless.”
The review highlights Part 135 activity as a notable area of concern given the category’s 8.6 per cent decline in 2023.
“It raises the questions: Where did the demand go? Are the new travelers we saw post-pandemic already gone from business aviation or did they just cut back? Have demand patterns changed, and associated leisure travel? What about demand around the rest of the world?” the review reads.
To break things down further, the largest decline was in Part 135 small cabin flying (down 13.3 per cent), followed by turboprops (down 10 per cent), and mid-size cabin jets (down 8 per cent). Part 135 large cabin flying was nearly flat in 2023, with a 0.7 per cent decline.
ARGUS noted that the post-Covid leisure travel boom has changed in the bizav sector, too. The review points to Sunday travel as a key indicator, since Sundays saw a major uptick in flight activity through 2021 and 2022, with people returning home from long weekend trips. Throughout 2023, however, Sunday was the day of the week that recorded the largest yearly decline in operations.
“It is hard to know exactly what changed or why, but it is likely that the industry in North America has moved back to more of the traditional business aviation environment, with less of a focus on leisure these days,” the TRAQPak review said. “New entrants seem to indicate they still fly in the space, but maybe a bit less now that offices and schools have moved to more in-person days — which means less flexibility for working location.”
Looking ahead through 2024, TRAQPak by ARGUS projects around 3.4 million flights for the North American industry. Flight activity for the year is expected to finish on a comparable note to 2023, with a 0.7 per cent decrease overall. The forecast suggests that out of the 12 months, only February, July, August, and December are anticipated to witness a year-over-year increase. Additionally, the latter half of the year is expected to see slightly stronger performance compared to the January to June period.
